If you haven't been initiated into the circle of Brandon Aiyuk truthers yet, this will be my last attempt to rope you in. Let's take a look at a blind wide receiver comparison to get things started. These statistics are for the past two seasons: Wide Receiver A
147 Receptions on 221 Targets for 2,370 Yards (10.8 YPT) and 12 Touchdowns
Wide Receiver B
143 Receptions on 207 Targets for 2,218 Yards (10.8 YPT) and 14 Touchdowns
Wide Receiver C
153 Receptions on 248 Targets for 2,083 Yards (8.4 YPT) and 8 Touchdowns
While statistics are certainly not a golden ticket to determining the future, they can certainly tell a story, and the story here is that of similar production. The trio of wide receivers above are; Jaylen Waddle (A, DLF WR 9), Chris Olave (C, DLF WR 7), and Brandon Aiyuk (B, DLF WR 11). While Waddle and Olave are consensus WR 1's across the industry as a whole, Aiyuk is just barely entering the conversation.
Digging a bit deeper, let's take another look at one more blind comparison featuring some advanced stats for 2023 (Courtesy of Player Profiler):
Wide Receiver A
Fantasy Points Per Target 2.36 (#3 in the NFL)
Fantasy Points Per Target vs Man Defense 2.61 (#3 in the NFL)
Yards Per Route Run 3.08 (#4 in the NFL)
Wide Receiver B
Fantasy Points Per Target 2.17 (#10 in the NFL)
Fantasy Points Per Target vs Man Defense 2.00 (#14 in the NFL)
Yards Per Route Run 2.67 (#8 in the NFL)
Wide Receiver C
Fantasy Points Per Target 2.34 (#4 in the NFL)
Fantasy Points Per Target vs Man Defense 2.66 (#2 in the NFL)
Yards Per Route Run 4.06 (#1 in the NFL)
With the one exception of an astonishing 4.06 YPRR for Wide Receiver C, I think you could forgive someone for not being able to decode which wide receiver is which among this group. The group is made up of Brandon Aiyuk (A), CeeDee Lamb (B), and Tyreek Hill (C). While nobody is going to mistake Aiyuk for either with regards to counting stats at this point, the underlying analytics indicate some room for growth in his numbers.
While the statistical and analytical arguments for Aiyuk are strong, there is one other factor that comes into play when considering his value. Aiyuk's salary jumps up to $14,124,000 next year on his 5th year option, and is no guarantee to be a long term fixture in San Fran. While he's been a great fit in the Shanahan offense, I'm equally interested to see what his ceiling would be as the true #1 option somewhere else.
Aiyuk is slowly creeping towards the value that he deserves within the dynasty community but there appears to still be some time to buy. Do yourself a favor and get in before everyone has caught on, Aiyuk is a superstar in the making.
-AF
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